The Final Chapter

Marvel Studios is closing out Phase Five with a bang—or at least, that’s the plan. Thunderbolts, hitting theaters May 2, 2025, brings together a team of antiheroes and misfits who aren’t quite Avengers… but they might be all we’ve got. Led by Yelena Belova (Florence Pugh) and Bucky Barnes (Sebastian Stan), this gritty ensemble also features Red Guardian, Ghost, Taskmaster, and U.S. Agent, all under the shadowy guidance of Valentina Allegra de Fontaine (Julia Louis-Dreyfus).

Directed by Jake Schreier, this MCU closer has a lot riding on it—both for Marvel fans and for box office analysts wondering if the studio can recapture some of that pre-Endgame magic.

The Numbers Game: Projections & Pressure

Early projections peg Thunderbolts for a domestic opening weekend between $65M–$85M, with total global earnings potentially hitting the $450M–$550M range. That’s respectable, but it won’t be easy.

Why? One word: Sinners.

The surprise mega-hit Sinners, an R-rated supernatural thriller released just three weeks earlier, is on a box office tear. With high repeat viewership and massive social buzz, some theaters are already giving it extended runs into early May. If Thunderbolts underwhelms in its first weekend, there’s a real risk that Sinners could crowd it out—especially in key urban markets where Marvel fatigue is setting in. On top of that, Mission: Impossible – The Final Chapter opens just two weeks later on May 23. This adds another blockbuster into the mix that could potentially slice into Thunderbolts’ second and third weekend legs.

A Look at Marvel’s Recent Scoreboard

To understand where Thunderbolts might land, it helps to look at Marvel’s recent track record:

• Captain America: Brave New World (2025): $415M worldwide
• Deadpool and Wolverine (2024): $1.34B worldwide
• Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (2023): $845M worldwide
• The Marvels (2023): $210M worldwide
• Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania (2023): $476M worldwide
• Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (2022): $859M worldwide
• Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness (2022): $955M worldwide

It’s been a rollercoaster. While Guardians and Doctor Strange 2 soared, The Marvels was a sobering miss. Thunderbolts needs to prove Marvel can still build hype around less “A-list” characters.

The Phase Five Finale Effect

One wild card in this equation: Thunderbolts is the final film of Phase Five. That adds a layer of potential draw. Fans might turn out in higher numbers if they hope for setup into Avengers: The Kang Dynasty. Early buzz that hints at major big-picture reveals could draw them in, too.

Marvel’s previous phase finales included Spider-Man: Far From Home for Phase 3. Ant-Man: Quantumania kicked off Phase 5. They all had varying degrees of payoff. If Thunderbolts delivers key plot developments—or even a major post-credits tease—it could drive stronger week-to-week legs.

Our Official Prediction:

• Opening Weekend (US): $65M
• Domestic Total: $180M
• Global Total: $380M

Will Marvel’s misfit crew be a thunderclap… or just a distant rumble? Stay tuned.